Thursday, April 24, 2014

What is really happening in Ukraine

If you're like a lot of people who keep up with world affairs, or at least, sorta-kinda try to, you probably find the situation in Ukraine to be confusing.  After all, the country is kind of in a civil war.  With the pro-Ukraine and pro- Russian groups duking it out right now, there are a lot of voices.

Incase you're one people oblivious to the situation in the Ukraine, here is a brief summary: The country is disorganized.  That's putting it bluntly, though.  The current crisis in the Ukraine started back in November, 2013, when former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych decided to reject a pend EU association agreement and instead choose closer ties with Russia.  Russia was pleased but the pro-EU Ukrainians weren't; they marched out onto the streets and began protesting.  Kiev's Independence Square, dubbed "Euromadan" by pro-EU Ukrainians, came to be the most notable location in the protest and is where many of the epic photos and videos of the Ukraine protest were shot.

This is Euromadan where apocalyptic photos and videos were taken during the protest.  Looks like something
straight out of a zombie movie doesn't it?
The protest became more violent and eventually the Ukrainian protesters began to call for the resignation of President Viktor Yanukovych and his government.

Well eventually Mr. Yanukovych and his government had had enough of this protest and on January 16, 2014, the Parliament of Ukraine passed the Ukrainian anti-protest laws restricting freedom of speech and freedom of assembly.

This didn't go over well with the protesters, who decided enough was enough, and began occupying buildings in the center of Kiev.  Riots pursued and it wasn't long before Ukraine had capture the world's attention.  The riots, which lasted from February 18-20, left 98 dead and over a thousand injured (casualty rates vary between sources).

President Yanukovych fled to Russia amidst the protest but continued to claim he was still the president of Ukraine.  There was one small problem with that.  He wasn't in his own country anymore and his people refused to acknowledge his leadership.  Kinda hard to govern a country when you aren't even in it and the people refuse to listen to you...  Soon after the pro-EU government took control as the new government in Ukraine.

Everything should have been jolly good for Ukraine.  Yanukovych was gone and the pro-EU government could now fix the country.  Right?  Not really.  Since the ousting of Mr. Yanukovych, pro-Russians have protested against the new government in Kiev.

Shortly after the new government took over in Kiev, the crisis in Crimea started.  The Russian speaking population, who was minor in all of Ukraine but major in Crimea, didn't want to join the EU; they wanted to join Russia.  This led to more protest but this time it was pro-Russians protesting against a pro-EU government.  Kind of ironic, eh?

Long story short, Russia annexed Crimea.  And in my opinion, it was the smoothest annexation I've ever heard of or seen.

And ever since the annexation of Crimea, things have continued to worsen between pro-Ukrainians and pro-Russians.  Pro-Russian militias have now taken over a dozen or so cities and town in eastern Ukraine, with Sloviansk being the separatists' stronghold.

Kiev has accused Russia of provoking the protest and sending Russian special forces into eastern Ukraine and passing off as pro-Russian Ukrainian militias.  Russia has repeatedly denied these claims but Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted last week that he had sent Russian soldiers into Crimea.

So are Russian special forces actually in eastern Ukraine, attempting to break more of Ukraine off and join Russia?  In my opinion, yes.  Reason being that this type scenario isn't bizarre or unusual.  Infact, the U.S., who has been highly critical of Russia's actions in Ukraine, actually trained and funded a counter-revolutionary military to invade Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro in 1961.  So there is a good chance that Russia is doing the same in the Ukraine.

Known as "little green men" these pro-Russian soldiers are believed to be Russian special forces sent into Crimea and Ukraine to provoke protest and sway the Ukrainian people to join Russia.


As of right now, the U.S. is criticizing Russia for not upholding their part in the Geneva agreement to to use their power to defuse the situation in eastern Ukraine and U.S. President Obama has has threatened to apply more sanctions against Russia.

Meanwhile, Kiev has sent Ukrainian forces to remove the the pro-Russian protesters in eastern Ukraine.  President Putin warned of consequences if Kiev used force against pro-Russians and it seems Putin has upheld his promise.

Currently, Russian forces, accumulating to about 40,000 soldiers in total, have begun conducting training exercises on the eastern Ukrainian-Russian border.

Russia has also sent fighter-jets into several European countries' airspace, resulting in fighter-jets of the European nation being scrambled to intercept the Russian jets.  At the time of writing this, 6:48 p.m. EST, BBC has reported that Royal Air Force Typhoon fighter-jets have been scrambled after two Russian fighter-jets were seen approaching British airspace.

In other news, the U.S. has begun sending a total of about 600 troops of the Army's 173rd Airborne Brigade to Eastern Europe to reassure NATO allies of its commitment to NATO's collective defense.

So what does the future of Ukraine, and the world, hold?  It is safe to say that it is highly unlikely the crisis will escalate into a war between the U.S. and Russia.  Both sides are smart enough to know that a war between them will escalate into a third world war, which is something no one wants.  But that doesn't mean the U.S. will stop its economic sanctions against Russia, which President Putin warns will cause damage to the world economy.  Ultimately we're just going to have to wait and watch.  Hopefully the crisis in Ukraine will deescalate.  But history shows that these type situations generally result in a lot of blood being shed.



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