Friday, April 25, 2014

Is The Crisis in Ukraine Escalating Into A Third World War?

Ukraine's prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenuk believes so.

"The world hasn't forgotten the Second World War and Russia wants to start a third world war," he said on Friday.

Russian Politician, Segei Shoigu, made a similar remark on Thursday, saying that if Ukraine's "war machine" does not stop, it will result in a large number of casualties.

The situation in the Ukraine has steadily worsened as the U.S. and Russia continue to verbally attack each.

On Thursday, Ukraine began its operations against the pro-Russian separatist that occupy a dozen cities in eastern Ukraine, and killed "up to five" pro-Russian activist in fighting at three checkpoints surrounding the separatist controlled city of Slovyansk, Ukraine officials and the Ukrainian Interior Ministry said.  One Ukrainian soldier was also reported to have been wounded.

The fighting reportedly broke out when security forces attempted to dislodge protesters and pro-Russian militants in cities across eastern Ukraine.

On Friday, Ukraine officials announced that the attack on pro-Russian separatist would continue.  A top official in Kiev said that the government would start "the second phase" of the operation against the pro-Russian militants which involved the Ukraine government focusing on isolating the insurgents, rather than directly confronting them, to avoid civilians being injured and or killed.  The second phase also involves completely blockading Slovyansk to prevent pro-Russian reinforcements from entering the city.

Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned Ukraine's actions on Thursday, saying that Kiev's use of its military against the Ukrainian people is a serious crime, and warned of "consequences" if Ukraine officials escalated the crisis.

Meanwhile on Thursday, Russia began conducting military exercises along the Russian-Ukrainian border, which will later include arial exercises.

Also on Thursday, three Russian helicopters were reported to have entered Ukrainian airspace and more Russian aircraft have continued to do so on Friday.

Two Russian fighter-jets entered British airspace on Thursday as well.

In response to Russia's recent threats, Ukraine's acting president, Oleksander Turchynov, said Thursday that "Ukraine wants Russia to stop the constant threats and blackmail and to withdraw its troops from the border."

A senior U.S. official also warned Russia that "Any further... military intervention" in Ukraine "would be a grave mistake."

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Thursday, that U.S. intelligence had reported that "Russian intelligence and special operations" forces are currently "playing an active role" eastern Ukraine.

There have been accusations by Kiev, the U.S., and other Western nations against Russia that Russian Special Forces have been involved in the pro-Russian protests and violence in Ukraine since the crisis in Crimea erupted last month.  Russia has continuously denied these claims.

On Wednesday U.S. President Barrack Obama said that a new round of sanctions against prominent Russian figures had been drawn up.

Ukraine saw relatively little violence on Friday, but the crisis continues to worsen.

Early on Friday at Kramatorsk airport, a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter exploded after being hit in the fuel tank by an RPG (rocket-propelled grenade) when it was attempting to take off, officials in Kiev said.  Footage of what is believed to be smoke from the explosion can be found online.

The pilot escaped and survived but sustained injuries.

The U.S. continues to accuse Russia of not upholding its agreement at Geneva last week, in which Russia promised to use its power to deescalate the situation in eastern Ukraine.

Also on Friday, a group of military observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe: consisting of three German soldiers, a German translator, and military observers from the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden, and Denmark, were in a bus with five Ukrainian soldiers and a driver on a road leading to Slovyansk, when pro-Russian militants seized the bus and drove it to their headquarters in the city.

The 13 passengers are being held in offices in the pro-Russian occupied state security service building.  The building was taken over two weeks ago by pro-Russian militants.

There have been talks conducted with pro-Russian forces to release the hostages but they have refused to release them.

"Talks with the pro-Russian forces are going on now.  They refused to let the hostages go, saying they need tot talk to the competent authorities in Russia," Ukraine's Interior Ministry said.

But why exactly are the members of the OSCE team being held?  Self appointed "people's mayor" of Slovyansk, Vyacheslav Ponomaryov, told Interfax news agency that the OSCE team had been detained because "forbidden ammunition" had been discovered on the bus they were traveling on.

A spokesman for the OSCE said in a statement that he didn't know if the team had been armed, but that it wasn't unusual for them to be carrying weapons on such missions.

Lastly, Mr. Putin has halted all talks with the White House, effectively ending diplomatic communication between the U.S. and Russia.

Igor Yurgens, Chairman of the Institute for Contemporary Development, assured that this move by Putin was only temporary.

So where is the crisis in Ukraine leading to?  It almost certainly won't lead to a third world war but it could lead to a bloody civil war if issues are not resolved between the Ukraine government and the pro-Russian population.  Meanwhile, the U.S. and Russia exchanging threats and accusations isn't helping.  If the two countries genuinely want the issue in Ukraine to be resolved, they need to take more actions towards that goal.  John Kerry accusing Russia of "continu[ing] to fund, coordinate, and fuel a heavily armed separatist movement in Donetsk" and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accusing the U.S. of "trying to pervert everything that is going on in Ukraine" most certainly is not helping the crisis at all.









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