Tuesday, April 29, 2014

"I am fed up with everything that is happening [in Ukraine]"

The crisis in Ukraine continues on Tuesday with pro-Russian activist seizing the regional government's headquarters and prosecutor's office in the eastern Ukraine city Luhansk.

Hundreds of people gathered in the courtyard outside the headquarters of the regional government to demand a referendum on granting greater autonomy to the east.  They were met by dozens of security personnel in riot gear.

Armed men with sticks and metal bars proceeded to storm the building, and once inside, open the building's unprotected main entrance to allow in the demonstrators outside.

More pro-Russian activist later overran the building house and the prosecutor's office and then attacked the headquarters of the interior ministry's police force.

About 20 gunmen reportedly opened fire on the police station with automatic weapons and threw stun grenades to force officers inside the building to surrender.

Pro-Russian Militants open fire on Luhansk's police headquarters.  Photo by BBC


Following the takeovers, Ukrainian Interim President Olexander Turchynov criticized local police for their "inaction" and demanded the dismissal of the police chiefs in Luhansk and Donetsk, where dozens of cities have been seized by pro-Russians.

Meanwhile, pro-Russian activist in Sloviansk continue to detain roughly 40 people, including seven military observers from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)..

One member of the OSCE team was released on Sunday for medical reasons.

Self appointed "people's mayor" of Slovyansk, Vyacheslav Ponomaryov, said on Tuesday evening that "good progress" had been made at talks with OSCE representatives.  Earlier, he had warned that the observers would only be released if the E.U. dropped its sanctions against the pro-Russian Separatist leaders.

The E.U. recently published a new list of 15 individuals facing travel banks and asset freezes: Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General Staff; Lt. Gen. Igor Sergun, head of Russia's military intelligence agency, the GRU; and  Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak were some of those mentioned by the EU.

Pro-Russian separatist leaders in Crimea, Luhnsk, and Donetsk were also mentioned.

On Monday, the U.S. announced new sanctions as well, this time against seven individuals and 17 companies it said were apart of Russian President Vladimir Putin's "inner circle".

But these sanctions, which were meant to damage Russia's "already weak economy", seems to have had no affect.  Moscow's stock market has rebounded for the second time following the latest series of sanctions. While Russian officials have acknowledge that the economy will be affected by the sanctions, some have said that the U.S. and the E.U. are only damaging themselves.

However, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said that the sanctions have caused "substantial deterioration" to Russia's economy.


In other developments:

  • A NATO official said on Tuesday that there is no sign of Russian troops having left the Ukrainian-Russian border, despite Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu saying otherwise on Monday.
  • U.S. journalist Simon Ostrovsky described his detainment in the latest Vice News Ukraine Dispatch.  Simon described being threatened, beaten, and left in a cold cellar for three days by pro-Russian activist.


So what do the Ukrainian people have to say about the crisis in Ukraine?  Well you have differing opinions.  Majority of people in eastern Ukraine are for a united-Ukraine.  But mixed in with them are pro-Russians, some of who have gone to violent ends in effort to achieve their wishes, resulting in the pro-Russian occupation of most of eastern Ukraine.  One particular Ukrainian citizen said in a interview by BBC, "I am, without a doubt, for a unified Ukraine.  Honestly, I'm fed up with everything that is happening... people are afraid to walk on the streets, and in general, go out  Majority of the stores aren't working.

"I would like everything to calm down, but I wouldn't like to go to Russia.  It wouldn't be better there."



Friday, April 25, 2014

Is The Crisis in Ukraine Escalating Into A Third World War?

Ukraine's prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenuk believes so.

"The world hasn't forgotten the Second World War and Russia wants to start a third world war," he said on Friday.

Russian Politician, Segei Shoigu, made a similar remark on Thursday, saying that if Ukraine's "war machine" does not stop, it will result in a large number of casualties.

The situation in the Ukraine has steadily worsened as the U.S. and Russia continue to verbally attack each.

On Thursday, Ukraine began its operations against the pro-Russian separatist that occupy a dozen cities in eastern Ukraine, and killed "up to five" pro-Russian activist in fighting at three checkpoints surrounding the separatist controlled city of Slovyansk, Ukraine officials and the Ukrainian Interior Ministry said.  One Ukrainian soldier was also reported to have been wounded.

The fighting reportedly broke out when security forces attempted to dislodge protesters and pro-Russian militants in cities across eastern Ukraine.

On Friday, Ukraine officials announced that the attack on pro-Russian separatist would continue.  A top official in Kiev said that the government would start "the second phase" of the operation against the pro-Russian militants which involved the Ukraine government focusing on isolating the insurgents, rather than directly confronting them, to avoid civilians being injured and or killed.  The second phase also involves completely blockading Slovyansk to prevent pro-Russian reinforcements from entering the city.

Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned Ukraine's actions on Thursday, saying that Kiev's use of its military against the Ukrainian people is a serious crime, and warned of "consequences" if Ukraine officials escalated the crisis.

Meanwhile on Thursday, Russia began conducting military exercises along the Russian-Ukrainian border, which will later include arial exercises.

Also on Thursday, three Russian helicopters were reported to have entered Ukrainian airspace and more Russian aircraft have continued to do so on Friday.

Two Russian fighter-jets entered British airspace on Thursday as well.

In response to Russia's recent threats, Ukraine's acting president, Oleksander Turchynov, said Thursday that "Ukraine wants Russia to stop the constant threats and blackmail and to withdraw its troops from the border."

A senior U.S. official also warned Russia that "Any further... military intervention" in Ukraine "would be a grave mistake."

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Thursday, that U.S. intelligence had reported that "Russian intelligence and special operations" forces are currently "playing an active role" eastern Ukraine.

There have been accusations by Kiev, the U.S., and other Western nations against Russia that Russian Special Forces have been involved in the pro-Russian protests and violence in Ukraine since the crisis in Crimea erupted last month.  Russia has continuously denied these claims.

On Wednesday U.S. President Barrack Obama said that a new round of sanctions against prominent Russian figures had been drawn up.

Ukraine saw relatively little violence on Friday, but the crisis continues to worsen.

Early on Friday at Kramatorsk airport, a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter exploded after being hit in the fuel tank by an RPG (rocket-propelled grenade) when it was attempting to take off, officials in Kiev said.  Footage of what is believed to be smoke from the explosion can be found online.

The pilot escaped and survived but sustained injuries.

The U.S. continues to accuse Russia of not upholding its agreement at Geneva last week, in which Russia promised to use its power to deescalate the situation in eastern Ukraine.

Also on Friday, a group of military observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe: consisting of three German soldiers, a German translator, and military observers from the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden, and Denmark, were in a bus with five Ukrainian soldiers and a driver on a road leading to Slovyansk, when pro-Russian militants seized the bus and drove it to their headquarters in the city.

The 13 passengers are being held in offices in the pro-Russian occupied state security service building.  The building was taken over two weeks ago by pro-Russian militants.

There have been talks conducted with pro-Russian forces to release the hostages but they have refused to release them.

"Talks with the pro-Russian forces are going on now.  They refused to let the hostages go, saying they need tot talk to the competent authorities in Russia," Ukraine's Interior Ministry said.

But why exactly are the members of the OSCE team being held?  Self appointed "people's mayor" of Slovyansk, Vyacheslav Ponomaryov, told Interfax news agency that the OSCE team had been detained because "forbidden ammunition" had been discovered on the bus they were traveling on.

A spokesman for the OSCE said in a statement that he didn't know if the team had been armed, but that it wasn't unusual for them to be carrying weapons on such missions.

Lastly, Mr. Putin has halted all talks with the White House, effectively ending diplomatic communication between the U.S. and Russia.

Igor Yurgens, Chairman of the Institute for Contemporary Development, assured that this move by Putin was only temporary.

So where is the crisis in Ukraine leading to?  It almost certainly won't lead to a third world war but it could lead to a bloody civil war if issues are not resolved between the Ukraine government and the pro-Russian population.  Meanwhile, the U.S. and Russia exchanging threats and accusations isn't helping.  If the two countries genuinely want the issue in Ukraine to be resolved, they need to take more actions towards that goal.  John Kerry accusing Russia of "continu[ing] to fund, coordinate, and fuel a heavily armed separatist movement in Donetsk" and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accusing the U.S. of "trying to pervert everything that is going on in Ukraine" most certainly is not helping the crisis at all.









Thursday, April 24, 2014

What is really happening in Ukraine

If you're like a lot of people who keep up with world affairs, or at least, sorta-kinda try to, you probably find the situation in Ukraine to be confusing.  After all, the country is kind of in a civil war.  With the pro-Ukraine and pro- Russian groups duking it out right now, there are a lot of voices.

Incase you're one people oblivious to the situation in the Ukraine, here is a brief summary: The country is disorganized.  That's putting it bluntly, though.  The current crisis in the Ukraine started back in November, 2013, when former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych decided to reject a pend EU association agreement and instead choose closer ties with Russia.  Russia was pleased but the pro-EU Ukrainians weren't; they marched out onto the streets and began protesting.  Kiev's Independence Square, dubbed "Euromadan" by pro-EU Ukrainians, came to be the most notable location in the protest and is where many of the epic photos and videos of the Ukraine protest were shot.

This is Euromadan where apocalyptic photos and videos were taken during the protest.  Looks like something
straight out of a zombie movie doesn't it?
The protest became more violent and eventually the Ukrainian protesters began to call for the resignation of President Viktor Yanukovych and his government.

Well eventually Mr. Yanukovych and his government had had enough of this protest and on January 16, 2014, the Parliament of Ukraine passed the Ukrainian anti-protest laws restricting freedom of speech and freedom of assembly.

This didn't go over well with the protesters, who decided enough was enough, and began occupying buildings in the center of Kiev.  Riots pursued and it wasn't long before Ukraine had capture the world's attention.  The riots, which lasted from February 18-20, left 98 dead and over a thousand injured (casualty rates vary between sources).

President Yanukovych fled to Russia amidst the protest but continued to claim he was still the president of Ukraine.  There was one small problem with that.  He wasn't in his own country anymore and his people refused to acknowledge his leadership.  Kinda hard to govern a country when you aren't even in it and the people refuse to listen to you...  Soon after the pro-EU government took control as the new government in Ukraine.

Everything should have been jolly good for Ukraine.  Yanukovych was gone and the pro-EU government could now fix the country.  Right?  Not really.  Since the ousting of Mr. Yanukovych, pro-Russians have protested against the new government in Kiev.

Shortly after the new government took over in Kiev, the crisis in Crimea started.  The Russian speaking population, who was minor in all of Ukraine but major in Crimea, didn't want to join the EU; they wanted to join Russia.  This led to more protest but this time it was pro-Russians protesting against a pro-EU government.  Kind of ironic, eh?

Long story short, Russia annexed Crimea.  And in my opinion, it was the smoothest annexation I've ever heard of or seen.

And ever since the annexation of Crimea, things have continued to worsen between pro-Ukrainians and pro-Russians.  Pro-Russian militias have now taken over a dozen or so cities and town in eastern Ukraine, with Sloviansk being the separatists' stronghold.

Kiev has accused Russia of provoking the protest and sending Russian special forces into eastern Ukraine and passing off as pro-Russian Ukrainian militias.  Russia has repeatedly denied these claims but Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted last week that he had sent Russian soldiers into Crimea.

So are Russian special forces actually in eastern Ukraine, attempting to break more of Ukraine off and join Russia?  In my opinion, yes.  Reason being that this type scenario isn't bizarre or unusual.  Infact, the U.S., who has been highly critical of Russia's actions in Ukraine, actually trained and funded a counter-revolutionary military to invade Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro in 1961.  So there is a good chance that Russia is doing the same in the Ukraine.

Known as "little green men" these pro-Russian soldiers are believed to be Russian special forces sent into Crimea and Ukraine to provoke protest and sway the Ukrainian people to join Russia.


As of right now, the U.S. is criticizing Russia for not upholding their part in the Geneva agreement to to use their power to defuse the situation in eastern Ukraine and U.S. President Obama has has threatened to apply more sanctions against Russia.

Meanwhile, Kiev has sent Ukrainian forces to remove the the pro-Russian protesters in eastern Ukraine.  President Putin warned of consequences if Kiev used force against pro-Russians and it seems Putin has upheld his promise.

Currently, Russian forces, accumulating to about 40,000 soldiers in total, have begun conducting training exercises on the eastern Ukrainian-Russian border.

Russia has also sent fighter-jets into several European countries' airspace, resulting in fighter-jets of the European nation being scrambled to intercept the Russian jets.  At the time of writing this, 6:48 p.m. EST, BBC has reported that Royal Air Force Typhoon fighter-jets have been scrambled after two Russian fighter-jets were seen approaching British airspace.

In other news, the U.S. has begun sending a total of about 600 troops of the Army's 173rd Airborne Brigade to Eastern Europe to reassure NATO allies of its commitment to NATO's collective defense.

So what does the future of Ukraine, and the world, hold?  It is safe to say that it is highly unlikely the crisis will escalate into a war between the U.S. and Russia.  Both sides are smart enough to know that a war between them will escalate into a third world war, which is something no one wants.  But that doesn't mean the U.S. will stop its economic sanctions against Russia, which President Putin warns will cause damage to the world economy.  Ultimately we're just going to have to wait and watch.  Hopefully the crisis in Ukraine will deescalate.  But history shows that these type situations generally result in a lot of blood being shed.