Donetsk and Luhansk Declare to be Independent Nations

Results from the pro-Russian separatist referendums in Donetsk and Luhansk show an overwhelming "yes" for self-rule in those regions and have declared themselves to be independent countries.

Ninety percent voted for independence from Ukraine according to results from the vote.

There was roughly a 70% turnout.

In Luhansk and Dontesk, 96% and 90% respectively voted for autonomy from the Ukraine.

Kiev and the West claimed that the referendum was illegal and that they would not recognize it as legitimate.  The Ukrainian government stated that the vote was "fascist".

"These attempts at referendums have zero credibility in the eyes of the world; they are illegal by anybody's standards--they don't meet any standard, no a single standard of objectivity, transparency, fairness, or being properly conducted," British MP William Hague told reporters.

Russia, on the other hand, stated that the will of the people must be respected.

"We respect the will of the population of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and hope the practical implantation of the outcome of the referendums will proceed along civilized lines without further outbreaks of violence, and through dialogue," Russian Diplomat Sergei Lavrov said.

Just two hours after the voting ended, the newly formed nation, the "People's Republic of Donetsk", asked to join Russia.

Russian MP Vyacheslav Nikonov stated that Moscow would have to contemplate the "economic, political, and military risks" before deciding whether or not to annex Donetsk and Luhansk.

It does seem though that he supports the regions' population, saying that "the residents of Luhansk and Donetsk deserve no less support from us, indeed they deserve much more support from us than the residents of Crimea."

Roman Lyagin, head of the de facto central election committee in Donetsk, stated that the region's population would be the ones to decide whether they would stay with Ukraine, or join Russia, or become an independent nation.

In Luhansk, Vasily Nikitin, deputy head of the separatist movement in the region, congratulated the beginning of the "Luhansk republic" and said: "We are now preparing an appeal to the U.N. and international community asking them to recognize us."

But it seems that some people in Luhansk don't just want to be an independent nation, but also apart of Russia.

Eighty year old Anatoly Sukharev, a resident of Luhansk, asked Mr. Nikitin on Monday: "What is next?  When are we going to have this referendum [to join Russia]?"

Vasily replied, saying that the "republic" needs to "organize as a country" before asking to join Russia.

He also said that the new country's constitution is nearly finished, and that the people of Luhansk would not participate in Ukraine's presidential election on May 25.

Donetsk authorities also stated they will not allow voting in the election.

The situation in Ukraine has steadily worsened ever since the ousting of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych followed by the annexation of Crimea by Russia in March.

The West and Kiev have repeatedly accused Russia of sending Russian special forces into eastern Ukraine to provoke pro-Russian activist to strike out against the Ukrainian government.

The U.S. and Ukrainian interim government has also claimed that Russia has been supplying the pro-Russian militants with weapons and supplies.

Moscow has continued to deny these claims, but that doesn't mean they aren't true.

Journalist in Ukraine have found at least partial evidence of Russia Moscow pro-Russian militants with weapons and equipment.

For example, in Vice's documentation of the crisis, Russian Roulette in Ukraine, U.S. journalist Simon Ostrovsky found supplies owned by pro-Russian activist that apparently was from Russia.

He also interviewed Russian military veterans who had come to Ukraine to help the Russian speaking population in eastern Ukraine.

And the "little green men", as some called them, that invaded Crimea back in March turned out to really be Russian soldiers.

Those "little green men" are the most Russian looking "militants" I've ever seen.  Maybe, it's because they're actually Russian soldiers!  Surprise!  Surprise!

While we're on the topic of Russian invasion, let's discuss the possibility of Russia sending in special forces to provoke the pro-Russian activist to lash out against Kiev and cry for independence.

If these accusations by the West are true, then Moscow did a great job pulling it off.  They already gained Crimea and it looks like they may very well gain Donetsk and Luhansk too.

As you can see, Donetsk and Luhansk are right next to Russia.  Crimea, however, is not.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's request for pro-Russian activist to postpone their referendum and conduct dialogue with the Ukrainian government may have just been a political move by him to cover up what his real plans are.

Now that is just a conspiracy theory of mine that has no proof, but it seems like a great plan.  After all, with all those sanctions being thrown at his inner circle, it would make sense that he would want to appear as if he backed off from his aggressive attitude in Ukraine.

But what do I know?  I'm just some American highschooler writing up facts and opinions on a blog that no one reads.  (No, that is not a gripe, it is a fact).

Moving on to legality of a referendum, after doing a bit of research I managed to find this, the written law of referendums in Ukraine.

It is fairly long so here are the highlights:

• An all-Ukrainian referendum is a supreme form of direct democracy, and an expression of free will of Ukrainian citizens.
• Any issue may become subject of an all-Ukrainian referendum with an exception of those prohibited by the Constitution of Ukraine.
•  An all-Ukrainian referendum called by the public initiative is a way of citizens to adopt decisions on all issues with the exception of those stipulated by the Article 74 of the Constitution of Ukraine (in reference to draft laws on taxing policies, budget and amnesty).
• An all-Ukrainian referendum on changing the territory of Ukraine is a way for citizens to approve/disapprove a draft law on international agreement ratification on changing the territory of Ukraine. The president is to conclude an international agreement ratification, and then to submit this document to review at the Verkhovna Rada.
• The Verkhovna Rada is to declare an all-Ukrainian referendum on the territorial changes of Ukraine.

But I think it's this part that is most important in determining if the referendum held by the pro-Russian separatist was illegal or not.

• The decision to appoint an all-Ukrainian referendum on changing the territory of Ukraine is approved by the decree of Verkhovna Rada.

That pretty much speaks for itself.  The Verkhovna Rada, A.K.A. the Supreme Council of Ukraine, legally decides whether or not to hold a referendum on the changing of territory of Ukraine.

(Interesting note: The Verkhovna Rada declared Ukraine's Independence in 1991.)

But the laws of a country don't mean jack when its people refuse to obey them.  And no matter how much Kiev and the West cry out that the referendum by pro-Russian activist is illegal illegitimate, it isn't going to stop them from continuing with their independence from Ukraine.

Everyday it looks more and more like the country is heading towards a civil-war.

I think Maxim, a 28 year-old citizen of Andreevka, a small village outside of Slovyansk, summed up what a lot of Ukrainian are feeling right now: "I am ready to accept any government, just to make it calm again."

Maxim holding his bald kitties.  Photo by Harriet Salem, Vice News.

Pro-Russian Separatist in Eastern-Ukraine Begin Vote on Self-Rule

Pro-Russian activist in eastern Ukraine have held their referendum on greater autonomy from Ukraine, despite warnings from Kiev and the West that the vote was illegal and Russian President Vladimir Putin asking that it be postponed.

According to separatist officials, there was a 70% turnout in the Donetsk region-- there was no confirmation of this report.

Roman Lyagin, head of the self-proclaimed Donestsk People's Republic election commission, boasted higher claims, saying that there had been a turnout of nearly 75% and that 89% voted in favour of self-rule.

But are these reports true?  Well neither I or anyone else can say for sure yet.  However, it is important to note that a recent survey by Pew Research Center originally found that 70% of those in eastern Ukraine wished for their country to stay united.

Now there is a catch to this, and that is that those statistics come only from those who answered to the survey's questions.  If, for example, only 10 out of 100 eastern Ukrainians answered the survey, and 7 out of the 10 wished for Ukraine to stay united but the other 90 people that didn't vote wanted to separate from Ukraine, then the survey would obviously give false statistics.

And this could very well turn be the case if the separatist leaders' claims turn out to be true.

However, there is a catch to this: Voters can seemingly vote more than once in different regions (or even in the same region).  How? you may ask.

It's simple, the voting stations are terribly unorganized.  The polling stations are so terribly organized that at some locations people vote at the registration desks.

Sergei Babin, chairman of Mariopol's voting station, stated that the separatist officials had made sure to avoid this problem by writing down the names of voters at polling stations and then comparing the lists of names.

If this referendum results in most of eastern Ukraine,  it would be "a step towards the abyss", Ukraine's interim President Olexandr Turchynov has stated.

The West has warned of similar consequences as well as threatening Russia with further sanctions to damage its already weak economy.

Russian officials, however, reported a few weeks ago that the sanctions that have been applied to them have caused little damage to their nation's economy.  This could just be a bluff as U.S. officials have contradicted Moscow by citing reports proving the sanctions to have damaged the Russian economy.

What the future of Ukraine holds continues to unveil itself.  If one thing is certain, it is that the path Ukraine is taking is a highly dangerous one that could result in a deadly civil-war.

Donestk separatist leader Denish Pushilin stated that if the vote for self-rule in eastern Ukraine wins, then the Ukrainian military forces in that region we be considered "occupying forces".  And that could easily and quickly worsen the crisis.

Majority of Ukrainians in favor of their country staying united

Pro-Russian separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine have decided to go ahead with their referendum planned on May 11 for a vote on greater autonomy from Kiev despite Russian President Vladimir Putin asking on Wednesday to postpone the vote.

Mr. Putin's request to postpone the referendum in hopes to begin deescalating the crisis in Ukraine was turned down on Thursday by the 78 self-appointed  "deputies" representing the pro-Russians in eastern Ukraine.

The decision was unanimous, Donetsk leader, Denis Pushilin, stated.

Vladimir, one of the "deputies", said that they respected President Putin but that they have their "own opinion and the people want a referendum like they had in Crimea."

"We just voice what the people want and demonstrate through their actions," Mr. Pushilin said.

The EU stated that the referendum would have "no democratic legitimacy" and that it would only "worsen the situation."

But it seems that majority of Ukrainians actually want their country to stay united according to a recent survey by the Pew Research Center in Ukraine and Russia.

The survey, which took place after Russia's annexation of Crimea, but before the violence in Odessa last Friday, found that 77% of Ukrainians want the country to stay united, 14% believe that regions which wish to secede should be allowed to do so, and 9% are unsure.

In western Ukraine, 93% want the country to remain united, 4% are for regions being allowed to secede, and 2% are undecided.

Eastern Ukraine found more support for those wishing to secede (18%), but 70% want to stay united.

The Russian speaking population had even more support for secession (27%), but surprisingly more wish for Ukraine to stay united (58%).

Crimea, however, had more wishing for regions to be allowed secede with 54%, while only 12% want Ukraine to remain united.

The survey also found that only 41% of Ukrainians think the current interim government in Kiev is having good influence over the crisis.

60% of western Ukrainians believe the interim government is good compared to eastern Ukrainians' 24%.

Pew Research Center's survey also asked Ukrainians what kind of influence the EU, the US, and Russia were having: 33% believe the EU has had a bad influence while 45% believe it has had a good influence; the US is tied with 38% think it has had a bad or good influence; and Russia has had the worst influence (67%) with only 22% thinking it has had a good influence.

All in all, despite claims otherwise by the Kremlin and pro-Russian separatist, it seems that majority of Ukrainians wish for the country to remain united.  However, as the situation in Ukraine worsens, that position may very well change.

Putin Backs Ukrainian Presidential Election

On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that his support for Ukraine's presidential election planned to take place on May 25, and asked pro-Russian separatist in eastern Ukraine to postpone their referendum on autonomy from Ukraine which is planned for May 11.

These statements by Mr. Putin are a complete U-turn from his previous position.

After talking with Switzerland President Didier Burkhalter,  current head of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) which is coordinating the mediation effort in Ukraine, Putin said: "I would like to stress that while they [Ukraine's interim government] are a move in the right direction, [they] will not decided anything if all the citizens of Ukraine fail to understand how their rights are protected after the election is held."

Russia has repeatedly stated their right to protect the interest of the Russian speaking population in Ukraine.  This position is what led to Russia's annexation of former Ukrainian region Crimea back in March.

Mr. Putin also asked the pro-Russian activist in eastern Ukraine to postpone their referendum on greater autonomy from Ukraine planned for May 11.

"We think the most important thing now is to launch direct dialogue, genuine, full-fledged dialogue between the Kiev authorities and representatives of south east Ukraine," Mr. Putin said while standing next to Mr. Burkhalter.  "We all want the crisis to end as soon as possible, and in such a way that takes into account the interest of all people in Ukraine no matter where they live."

He also said that Russia had withdrawn it troops, mounting 40,000, from its Russian-Ukrainian border.

However, NATO has said it has seen no significant change in the number of troops positioned along the border.

What can Ukraine do to end its crisis?

Monday saw more violence in Ukraine with the death of four Ukrainian soldiers and ten pro-Russian militants from fighting in separatist controlled city, Slovyansk.

A Ukrainian helicopter was also shot down by pro-Russians.  The crew survived due mostly to the aircraft crashing into a lake.

Heavy weapons were used against the Ukraine forces, Kiev said.

After taking moderate casualties, pro-Russian gunmen fell back to the center of the city as Ukrainian troops continued to surround the Slovyansk, preventing separatist from entering or leaving the city.

According to BBC correspondents, the fighting had died down by Monday evening and an eerie silence hung over the city, which is usually active and bustling with people.

During this momentary lull, pro-Russian activist have begun building barricades in preparation for what they believe will be an invasion by Ukrainian forces.

But now the streets are nearly completely empty and residents remain shut indoors amid the violence and fear that engulfs the city.

More bad than good was most likely achieved by the fighting.  The only gain for Ukraine forces was the Control of one checkpoint from pro-Russian militants.  As for the pro-Russian activist, they are likely to gain more internal and external support as the conflict between them and Kiev intensifies.

During fighting between the two sides at an intersection near Semyonovka, a small village near Slovyansk, 30 year old Irina Boevets was struck in the head by a bullet while watching the fighting from her apartment.  Her husband found her moments later, dead and laying in a pool blood.

Mrs. Boevets wasn't the only civilian watching the fighting.  Many others watched from their houses and apartments.

At the fighting on the highway near Semyonovka, the Ukrainian government says its forces were ambushed by pro-Russian gunmen.  However, witnesses say differently that a Ukraine convoy attacked a newly fortified rebel position and killed many of them.

An attended at a gas station near the highway described laying flat on the floor as explosions rocked the building followed by a spray of bullets.

When interviewed by reports, he said: "I don't know how we can resolve this.  What steps can the Ukrainian people take to stop the shooting?  We have children."

Bloodiest Violence in Ukraine since February

On Friday, Ukraine saw its bloodiest violence since the protest in Kiev back in February which led to the ousting of former president Viktor Yanukovych.

At dawn, on Friday, Ukraine forces launched an attack on pro-Russian militants in Slovyansk.  Two Ukrainian helicopters were shot down by militants resulting in the death of two of the helicopters' crew members, both sides said.

According to the Ukrainian Security Service, the helicopters were shot down by militants with surface-to-air missiles, further supporting the claim by Kiev and the U.S. that Russia is supplying pro-Russian activist with weapons and supplies.

In an image from Rossia 24, a Russian state television channel, a wounded pilot is seen being carried by two pro-Russian militants.

By evening, the army had gain control of all checkpoints surrounding the city, Ukraine President Oleksander Turchynov said.  However, some insurgents say that they still have control of several checkpoints.

Mr. Oleksander also stated that two Ukraine soldiers had been killed - possibly referring to the helicopters' crew members - and that "many" insurgents had been killed, captured, and wounded.

The attack has taken longer than wished for, mostly due to the rebels "hiding behind the citizens", he said.

The attack had died down by midday but the atmosphere remains tense in the city.

Russia has said that this move by Ukraine's military destroyed the Geneva agreements by Kiev, Moscow, and the U.S. to defuse the crisis.

Washington, however, has repeatedly blamed Russia of not obeying its promise in the Geneva convention.

Russia also accused Ukraine of using tanks and helicopters against protesters, a claim which neither Kiev nor pro-Russian activist reported.

30 to 40 Dead in Odessa

Meanwhile in Odessa, a seaport city along the Black Sea and Ukraine's third largest city, clashes broke out between pro-Russian and pro-Unity activist, and police, resulting in at least 40 deaths.

In a youtube video of the clash, militants can be seen inside the city's Trade Union House, the entrance barricaded off, defending themselves from attacks by pro-Unity protesters outside who were throwing molotovs, petrol bombs, other explosive devices, bricks, stones, and anything else they could get their hands on.  Smoke rose from the courtyard where several fires - started by the the pro-Unity activists - burned.  Explosions could be heard every couple seconds.

The building quickly caught on fire from the molotovs thrown at it.  Activist inside the building frantically tried to escape but not all were able to.  At least 38 people died either from choking to death due to the smoke, or jumping from the building to escape the flames, police said.

Another youtube video shows the aftermath of the fire. [WARNING GRAPHIC]  Burned bodies can be seen inside the building.

Four other men were reportedly killed in clashes between the two activist sides.

There were also reports that pro-Russians fired at pro-Unity activist, resulting in several deaths, before they began attacking the pro-Russians in the Trade Union House.

Other developments

• At a UN Security Council meeting in New York on Friday, Russia's diplomat warned of "catastrophic consequences" if Ukraine continued with its military actions.  The U.S. defend Kiev's actions saying they were "proportionate and reasonable".

On Thursday, Interim Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov stated the military's conscription would be ratified: May Day parades were conducted in Kiev in which pro-Union Ukrainians expressed their desire for a unified Ukraine and their distress caused by Russia; as well as Moscow where Russian patriots praised President Vladimir Putin for his actions in Ukraine.  And pro-Russian activist attacked policemen in Donetsk's prosecutor's office.

Mr. Turchynov's call for a change in Ukraine's military conscription comes after his statement on Wednesday that the eastern part of the country has been lost to the pro-Russian separatist.

He also stated that Ukraine's military was on full alert for a possible invasion by Russia.

Mr. Putin has stated though that Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine.

But even if Russia was to invade, Ukraine's military isn't strong enough to win.  According to analysts, Ukraine has 350,000 active personnel in its military which could be raised to one million with reservists.
Russia on the other hand, has 766,055 active personnel and 2,035,000 reserve.

Comparison of Ukraine and Russia's military.  Photo: CNN

However, numbers don't play as large of a role in modern-warfare as they did just a few hundred years ago.  Today, technology, equipment, and the skill of the soldiers plays a much greater role in the outcome of battle.

With that said, Russia still has the upper hand.  With more advanced weapons, relatively better trained soldiers, and (despite what I said) larger numbers, Ukraine's military would only be able to put up at best a mediocre fight.

That's assuming though that Ukraine's citizens wouldn't form civilian militias and fight back the Russians alongside Ukrainian soldiers.  But with the current situation in eastern Ukraine, specifically all the pro-Russian activist, Ukrainians would find themselves fighting each other: Pro-Ukrainians and soldiers fighting pro-Russian activist and soldiers.

Now you may be asking, why did I contradict myself by saying that Russia's large forces would play a factor in Russia beating Ukraine?  Because, Russia has larger numbers of better weapons and technology than Ukraine does.

For example, who would be more likely to kill Fred: John who is throwing ten eighty-pound rocks at Fred?  Or Steve who is throwing one ten-pound rock at Fred?

John is the obvious answer.

So when you have 5-10 times more rocks that are more powerful than Steven's, you're more likely to win.  That is, as long as you know how to use your rock effectively.  Which you do.  Because in this example you're Russia.

This example applies to the real Russia and Ukraine.  Not only does Russia have more powerful weapons, it has more well trained soldiers who know how to effectively use their equipment.

Therefor, in the event if Russia did invade, it seems they would be more likely to win than Ukraine.

But there is a twist.  According to Secretary of State John Kerry, Russia already has invaded Ukraine.

Last Thursday, Mr. Kerry stated U.S. intelligence had proof that Russian spies and special forces are in eastern Ukraine who analysts say are meant to disrupt day to day life so that the pro-Russian separatists' plan on May 11 to vote for autonomy from Kiev will trump Ukraine's presidential election on May 25.

Russia continues to deny involvement in Ukraine, however, and says that the U.S. and West is responsible for the crisis.

Ultimately, the fate of Ukraine rest in the hands of its people.  Looking at eastern Ukraine, it seems that the people there want to join Russia.  But according to Olga Aivazovska, a co-founder of Opora, an independent election monitoring and polling group, only 20 percent of Ukraine citizens want to join Russia.

The pro-Russian referendum in Donetsk on May 11 will shed some light on what at least part of the Ukraine people want.

In the Mayday parade conducted in Kiev on Thursday, a middle-aged man said: "I think interference from the outside [Russia] is unacceptable.  Let the Russians deal with Tajikistan and the 'separatist', as they call themselves, and not interfere with our country.  We will deal on our own.  Our country is brilliant and we must be united."